Will Bitcoin drop to $13,800? — What an 80% reduction will look like from here


On Monday, June 15, 2022, the bitcoin price hit a low not seen since mid-December 2020 when the price reached $20,080 per unit. A host of cryptocurrency supporters are debating whether or not the drop is the bottom of the market or whether the drop could lead to deeper losses. At the time of writing, […]

Will Bitcoin drop to $13,800?  — What an 80% reduction will look like from here

On Monday, June 15, 2022, the bitcoin price hit a low not seen since mid-December 2020 when the price reached $20,080 per unit. A host of cryptocurrency supporters are debating whether or not the drop is the bottom of the market or whether the drop could lead to deeper losses. At the time of writing, bitcoin is 70% below the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000, but bitcoin is traditionally known to be down around 80% or more from past recorded ATHs.

Will Bitcoin Slide Over 80% This Time?

The crypto economy has had a rough couple of weeks, with the top crypto asset bitcoin (BTC) losing 35% in the last 14 days. Speculators have gone from guessing whether or not it might be a bear market to saying it definitely is a bear market.

Over the last few days, there has been a lot of capitulation and on Monday, hundreds of thousands of crypto traders were liquidated for close to $1.30 billion. Two days later, bitcoin fell to a low of $20,080 per BTC and the last time BTC traded at this price was 17 months ago, in mid-December 2020.

$13,800 bitcoin,

At current USD values, bitcoin is down 70% from the $69,000 ATH it hit on Nov 10, 2021. During the 2013 and 2017 bull runs, bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 80% below its previous price peaks. Coingecko.com founder Bobby Ong tweeted on bitcoin declines from previous bull runs and included ethereum (ETH) in the run up to 2017.

For example, after BTC’s high price in 2013 of around $1127 per unit, by 2015 BTC was down 82% to $200 per coin. Ong’s tweet shows that in 2017, BTC jumped to $19,423 per unit, but by 2018, the price fell to a low of $3,217, which was 83% lower than the peak price.

The Coingecko co-founder explained that ethereum fell 94% during the 2017-2018 price cycle. Ong’s tweet was posted on June 11, 2022, and at the time, the USD value of BTC was 59% lower than ATH and the value of ETH was 69% lower. At the time of writing, the dollar value of ETH is 75.4% lower than the crypto asset’s all-time high price ($4,815) reached on November 10, 2021.

Let’s do some math. With a potential bottom for $BTC at $12,000 and a potential bottom for the ETH/BTC pair at 0.03, this would mean that ETH would eventually reach $360. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #bear market $ETHBTC

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Of course, there are many speculations and theories as to whether or not the price of BTC will go down from here. An 80% reduction in BTC ATH in 2021 would be approximately $13,800 per unit. If ethereum saw a 90% drop from the ATH last year, then the value in USD would be around $488 per ether. Some speculators predict that BTC could reach $12K per unit and ETH could reach $360 per unit.

A Drop Below $19,000 Wipes Out Pre-Halving Price Highs, Bitcoin Miners Struggle, Macro Disasters Continue To Rock Global Markets

So far, since the crypto economy’s ATH last year, more than $2 trillion in value has left the crypto ecosystem. Traders are also worried about the upcoming halving as prices will need to be much higher when miners only get 3,125 BTC per block found. A drop below $19K per BTC will erase pre-halving price highs. Furthermore, using current BTC exchange rates and $0.12 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), only seven ASIC mining rigs are making consistent profits.

Bitmain’s Antminer S19 XP with 140 terahash per second (TH/s), using the same electricity cost of $0.12 per kWh, makes an estimated profit of $3.49 per day. The Microbt Whatsminer M50S with 126 TH/s earns an estimated $1.51 per day in BTC earnings using the same electricity costs. At $0.12 per kWh, machines producing 84 TH/s are not profitable unless they get cheaper electrical resources.

All of these signs and the thousands of crypto employees laid off over the past few weeks possibly show that this is definitely a bear market. The question remains whether the 80% or more drawdown will take place in this cycle and how long the bear run will last.

There are also macroeconomic disasters and concerns about rising inflation, central bank rate hikes, and the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Bitcoin steadily rose to its ATH while Americans and citizens of other countries received stimulus payments. While Bitcoin and the crypto markets have never experienced a Covid-19 lockdown economy before, the crypto economy is also untested under the current circumstances.

What do you think about the current bitcoin price cycle? Do you expect an 80% reduction from last year’s ATH? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.


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